Definition of 'Nut Flush Draw'

When you need one card to have the highest ranking flush hand possible (an Ace-high flush).

Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Ace-Queen : It was the best of times, It was the the worst of times.

One of the first things I 'un-learned' when I began playing poker was the misleading value of Ace-Queen.  In a number of poker sites, it's listed as a Top 10 hand, mathematically being the sixth best.  It dominates almost any Ax hand.  But I quickly learned it's by no means a 'premium' hand. AA, KK, QQ, AK (because of the K kicker) all dominate AQ.  And in a tight game, not many players are going in with any Ax combo, so that advantage is somewhat lessened.  Furthermore, smaller pairs 22 - JJ are a coin flip because of the small likelihood you flop a pair with your AQ.  The only instance where you win is if you flop a top pair and he misses on his set.  I've found myself folding into most early and middle position raises while holding an AQ.

However, I don't consider AQ to be a crap hand either.  AQ dominates AJ, KQ, and QJ for the same reason it's dominated by premium hands. There's just a smaller number of outs with these smaller hands.  Also, AQs is good for the nut flush!

toppoker.org has some interesting statistics on AQ:

AQ v. random hand = 65% favorite
           87s, KTs = 60% favorite          
           22 = 48% favorite (coin flip)
           TT = 45% favorite
           KK = 28% favorite
           AK = 23% favorite
           AA = 7.3% favorite

So personally, I tread lightly when holding an AQ.  Seems to me like your chances are 50/50 overall, but let me know if you differ and why.

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